Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-23 20.592829 24.811468 29.481458 35.007739 41.340723 48.343087 56.641797
2025-03-02 13.865418 19.187937 25.725427 34.227381 44.863135 57.594817 73.840837
2025-03-09 10.378412 16.051617 23.610372 34.162563 48.226824 66.022687 89.896841
2025-03-16 7.494993 12.893707 20.655524 32.208458 48.486700 70.082983 100.292453
2025-03-23 6.253916 11.750899 20.157802 33.319646 52.674502 79.283885 117.673177
2025-03-30 4.953089 10.199155 18.743367 32.808068 54.366266 85.028235 130.564982
2025-04-06 4.364248 9.695225 18.833954 34.489148 59.273730 95.454888 150.381074
2025-04-13 3.223698 7.926193 16.547380 32.089312 57.713928 96.345588 156.585140
2025-04-20 2.749944 7.323495 16.154097 32.697705 60.804892 104.185003 173.146961
2025-04-27 2.393201 6.876179 15.961136 33.591628 64.367543 112.870184 191.300792
2025-05-04 2.121969 6.551406 15.941792 34.761936 68.426864 122.482003 211.219740
2025-05-11 1.835480 6.117713 15.634724 35.351622 71.505900 130.656822 229.231061
2025-05-18 1.483574 5.463565 14.858487 35.147323 73.505152 137.712241 246.675107
2025-05-25 1.153599 4.758218 13.855139 34.403593 74.536923 143.349004 262.356567
2025-06-01 0.929916 4.271053 13.240608 34.341149 76.761162 151.042865 281.639704
2025-06-08 0.664409 3.520160 11.822951 32.378934 75.206708 152.155267 290.155604
2025-06-15 0.575579 3.347781 11.826475 33.494859 79.636583 163.837146 316.652028
2025-06-22 0.447336 2.953660 11.150955 32.981110 80.784314 169.751148 333.653890
2025-06-29 0.404251 2.898559 11.411005 34.669303 86.482055 184.074824 365.507672
2025-07-06 0.271676 2.334788 10.042919 32.259292 83.526611 182.474547 369.824180
2025-07-13 0.227061 2.184330 9.905934 32.870277 86.954397 192.803890 395.313360
2025-07-20 0.194078 2.076495 9.883232 33.767994 91.053138 204.561841 423.723816
2025-07-27 0.169576 2.003593 9.963406 34.943238 95.831184 217.801687 455.204574